Riding profile
Delta South
The question
Delta South: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Current forecast
Con
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Con | NDP | CentreBC | OneBC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDelta South | 51.5% | 38.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 42.4% +9.1 | 39.5% −1.0 | 3.2% +0.7 | 3.4% +0.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Delta South, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 51% vote share, against 39% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ian Paton
Sits with Con
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · BC 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Paton Elected | Con | — | 55.1 | — |
| Jason McCormick | NDP | — | 44.9 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
bc_44