U.S. Senate
Chance of a Senate majority: Democratic 66%, Republican 18%.
Seat forecast
| Party | Projected seats | Range | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 52 | 48–55 | 66% |
| Republican | 47 | 44–52 | 18% |
| Other | 1 | 0–1 | <1% |
51 seats for a majority, out of 100 · 488 polls, 50,000 simulations
Democrats · Polymarket : 64%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
Current Senate Composition
Seats — 100 total
- Republican 53
- Democratic 47
Prediction markets · Kalshi
What Kalshi traders are paying
Live prices from the Kalshi elections exchange, shown beside our projection. These prices do not enter our projection.
Congress balance of power
US$30M open interest- Democrats sweep61%
- D House, R Senate30%
- Republicans sweep10%
- R House, D Senate0.8%
Kalshi prices as of October 15, 2026 · Probability implied by the last traded price, or the midpoint between bid and ask when a contract has not traded.
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Across 50,000 simulations of the election.
State map
Colour shows the leading party; the shade, how settled the race is.
All races
All 35 races, sortable by leading party, margin and chance.
| Race | State | Leading | Vote | Margin | Chance | vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | IA | Democratic | 50.1% | 4.5 pts | 54% | Republican → Democratic |
| Texas | TX | Democratic | 50.3% | 4.5 pts | 58% | Republican → Democratic |
| Maine | ME | Democratic | 50.3% | 4.5 pts | 58% | Republican → Democratic |
| Kansas | KS | Republican | 49.9% | 4.6 pts | 51% | Hold |
| Alaska | AK | Republican | 50.7% | 4.9 pts | 63% | Hold |
| Ohio | OH | Democratic | 50.7% | 5.1 pts | 64% | Republican → Democratic |
| South Carolina | SC | Republican | 51.0% | 5.3 pts | 65% | Hold |
| Michigan | MI | Democratic | 52.0% | 5.7 pts | 79% | Hold |
| Minnesota | MN | Democratic | 51.8% | 6.7 pts | 84% | Hold |
| Mississippi | MS | Republican | 52.1% | 7.9 pts | 71% | Hold |
| Florida | FL | Republican | 53.6% | 8.3 pts | 90% | Hold |
| Nebraska | NE | Republican | 53.8% | 8.6 pts | 90% | Hold |
| North Carolina | NC | Democratic | 53.9% | 8.7 pts | 93% | Republican → Democratic |
| Georgia | GA | Democratic | 54.4% | 9.6 pts | 94% | Hold |
| Montana | MT | Republican | 45.9% | 9.8 pts | 86% | Hold |
| New Hampshire | NH | Democratic | 54.8% | 10.4 pts | 96% | Hold |
| South Dakota | SD | Other | 46.5% | 10.4 pts | 58% | Republican → Other |
| Kentucky | KY | Republican | 56.2% | 13.4 pts | 93% | Hold |
| Virginia | VA | Democratic | 56.3% | 13.7 pts | 94% | Hold |
| Louisiana | LA | Republican | 56.4% | 13.9 pts | 94% | Hold |
| New Mexico | NM | Democratic | 57.5% | 15.5 pts | 98% | Hold |
| Colorado | CO | Democratic | 57.3% | 17.3 pts | 97% | Hold |
| Alabama | AL | Republican | 58.5% | 17.6 pts | 97% | Hold |
| Illinois | IL | Democratic | 58.8% | 18.3 pts | 98% | Hold |
| Idaho | ID | Republican | 52.1% | 22.1 pts | 96% | Hold |
| Tennessee | TN | Republican | 59.2% | 23.6 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Oklahoma | OK | Republican | 57.8% | 23.6 pts | 99% | Hold |
| New Jersey | NJ | Democratic | 61.0% | 24.0 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Oregon | OR | Democratic | 60.7% | 25.3 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Arkansas | AR | Republican | 63.2% | 26.8 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Massachusetts | MA | Democratic | 63.0% | 28.0 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Delaware | DE | Democratic | 63.3% | 29.3 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Rhode Island | RI | Democratic | 64.2% | 34.8 pts | >99% | Hold |
| West Virginia | WV | Republican | 67.9% | 38.5 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Wyoming | WY | Republican | 68.7% | 40.2 pts | >99% | Hold |
Is the Senate map competitive enough to overcome its structural tilt?
Senate control is decided in a handful of states. A modest national shift barely moves the map; recruitment, incumbency and late money in the closest races move it far more.
How we got here
Only a third of the seats are up this year, so geography and incumbency come first.
Probabilities describe the range of plausible chamber outcomes; they do not erase distinct state coalitions.
What can still change the race
- Recruitment and primary outcomes in the closest states.
- Whether presidential approval moves consistently across several weeks.
- Spending decisions that reveal where both parties see real opportunity.