North Carolina

U.S. Senate · North Carolina

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 26%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 53.9%

Roy Cooper
Republican 45.7%

Michael Whatley

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
North Carolina	53.9%	45.7%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	47.3%+6.6	48.7%−3.0	4.0%−3.6

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

45 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Surveyusa WRAL News \| WSOC-TV	7–Oct 11, 2026	643	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 40	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	8–Oct 10, 2026	1,091	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 41	See the poll
Change Research Carolina Forward	1–Oct 7, 2026	829	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 40	See the poll
East Carolina University Center For Survey Research	Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 3, 2026	810	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 43	See the poll
Big Data Poll Public Polling Project	27–Sep 29, 2026	642	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 39	See the poll
Quantus Insights	21–Sep 22, 2026	686	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 43	See the poll
Opinion Diagnostics Common Cause North Carolina	17–Sep 20, 2026	857	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 44	See the poll
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP	17–Sep 20, 2026	1,115	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 42	See the poll
Yougov	15–Sep 18, 2026	3,742	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 41	See the poll
Insideradvantage	16–Sep 17, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 43	See the poll
High Point University	6–Sep 16, 2026	706	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 42	See the poll
Harper Polling Carolina Journal	13–Sep 15, 2026	608	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 34	See the poll
Yougov Catawba College Center for N.C. Politics & Public Service	4–Sep 15, 2026	885	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 37	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	8–Sep 10, 2026	1,084	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 42	See the poll
East Carolina University Center For Survey Research	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 3, 2026	675	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 44	See the poll
Yougov Elon University	21–Aug 31, 2026	800	adults	Democrat 39 Republican 29	See the poll
High Point University	3–Aug 12, 2026	800	registered voters	Democrat 50 Republican 45	See the poll
Harper Polling Carolina Journal	9–Aug 10, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 39	See the poll
Change Research Carolina Forward	3–Aug 6, 2026	915	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 43	See the poll
Change Research Gary Pearce \| Sam Hunt	Jul 29, 2026 – Aug 1, 2026	967	registered voters	Democrat 50 Republican 41	See the poll
Yougov Elon University	23–Jul 31, 2026	466	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 33	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	23–Jul 27, 2026	1,005	registered voters	Democrat 53 Republican 44	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	10–Jul 11, 2026	759	registered voters	Democrat 48 Republican 44	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	15–Jun 27, 2026	601	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 43	See the poll
Yougov Catawba College Center for N.C. Politics & Public Service	1–Jun 10, 2026	905	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 34	See the poll
Harper Polling Carolina Journal	10–May 11, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 39	See the poll
Change Research Carolina Forward	4–May 8, 2026	957	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 42	See the poll
Opinion Diagnostics	21–Apr 24, 2026	830	registered voters	Democrat 50 Republican 41	See the poll
High Point University	Mar 26, 2026 – Apr 6, 2026	800	registered voters	Democrat 49 Republican 39	See the poll
Quantus Insights	Mar 31, 2026 – Apr 1, 2026	987	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 44	See the poll
Harper Polling Carolina Journal	22–Mar 23, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 41	See the poll
Yougov Catawba College Center for N.C. Politics & Public Service	9–Mar 18, 2026	872	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 34	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	13–Mar 14, 2026	556	registered voters	Democrat 47 Republican 44	See the poll
Change Research Gary Pearce \| Sam Hunt	Jan 31, 2026 – Feb 4, 2026	1,069	registered voters	Democrat 50 Republican 40	See the poll
Tipp Insights League of American Workers	12–Jan 15, 2026	1,512	registered voters	Democrat 48 Republican 24	See the poll
Change Research Carolina Forward	5–Jan 7, 2026	1,105	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 42	See the poll
Harper Polling Carolina Journal	9–Nov 10, 2025	600	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 39	See the poll
Harper Polling Carolina Journal	14–Sep 15, 2025	600	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 42	See the poll
Change Research Carolina Forward	2–Sep 8, 2025	855	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 41	See the poll
Harper Polling Carolina Journal	11–Aug 12, 2025	600	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 39	See the poll
Emerson College	28–Jul 30, 2025	1,000	registered voters	Democrat 47 Republican 41	See the poll
Victory Insights	28–Jul 30, 2025	600	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 44	See the poll
Change Research Carolina Forward	Mar 31, 2025 – Apr 4, 2025	867	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 45	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	4–Mar 5, 2025	662	registered voters	Democrat 47 Republican 43	See the poll
Victory Insights	26–Nov 29, 2024	800	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 44	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Tillis, Thom R Sen · Republican

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Roy Cooper	92.0%	761,345 votes
Republican primary	Michael Whatley	64.6%	405,140 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Roy Cooper
source
Other Open seat

Mcginnis, Brian

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Michael Whatley
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Republican, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026