Alabama

U.S. Senate · Alabama

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 58.5%

Barry Moore
Democrat 41.1%

Everett Wess

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Alabama	58.5%	41.1%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	48.7%+9.8	47.3%−6.2	4.0%−3.6

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Rmg Research Alabama Policy Action \| Napolitan News Service	21–Sep 25, 2026	800	registered voters	Republican 54 Democrat 33	See the poll
Yes. Every Kid. Foundation.	8–Jul 11, 2026	601	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 32	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Tuberville, Thomas H · Republican

Primary results

Held June 16, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Everett Wess	54.6%	49,396 votes
Republican primary	Barry Moore · Advanced to a runoff	39.2%	189,067 votes
Republican primary	Jared Hudson · Advanced to a runoff	25.6%	123,672 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Everett Wess
source
Republican Open seat

Barry Moore
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Republican, toss-up
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive
Idaho Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026