Arkansas
U.S. Senate · Arkansas
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | 63.2% | 36.4% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 48.7%+14.5 | 47.3%−10.9 | 4.0%−3.6 |
Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
5 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Tom Cotton · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Hallie Shoffner | 78.3% | 102,289 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Tom Cotton | 81.6% | 230,209 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated