Ohio

U.S. Senate · Ohio

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 64% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.1 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 58%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.7%

Sherrod Brown
Republican 48.7%

Jon Husted, incumbent
Other 0.6%

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Ohio	50.7%	48.7%	0.6%
National averageUnited States	47.3%+3.4	48.7%	4.0%−3.4

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

30 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Co/Efficient	5–Oct 6, 2026	925	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 45	See the poll
Cnn Ssrs	Sep 29, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026	760	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 43	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	616	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 46	See the poll
Yougov	18–Sep 30, 2026	3,777	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 45	See the poll
Insideradvantage	28–Sep 29, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 43	See the poll
Suffolk University USA Today	23–Sep 27, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 44	See the poll
Big Data Poll Public Polling Project	26–Sep 27, 2026	680	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 41	See the poll
Marist University	24–Sep 27, 2026	1,298	registered voters	Democrat 51 Republican 43	See the poll
Quantus Insights	21–Sep 23, 2026	695	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 47	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	14–Sep 16, 2026	1,085	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 42	See the poll
Yougov Bowling Green State University	1–Sep 10, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 45	See the poll
Insideradvantage	8–Sep 9, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 42	See the poll
Abacus Data	26–Aug 28, 2026	306	likely voters	Democrat 40 Republican 33	See the poll
Wedgewood Polls	11–Aug 13, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 44	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	6–Aug 10, 2026	1,008	registered voters	Democrat 53 Republican 45	See the poll
Tulchin Research	Jul 29, 2026 – Aug 4, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 43	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	15–Jun 28, 2026	601	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 47	See the poll
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP	14–Jun 16, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 45	See the poll
Tulchin Research	2–Jun 4, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 42	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	May 28, 2026 – Jun 1, 2026	1,015	registered voters	Democrat 53 Republican 45	See the poll
Bowling Green State University Democracy And Public Policy Research Network/Yougov	7–Apr 14, 2026	1,000	registered voters	Republican 50 Democrat 47	See the poll
Echelon Insights NetChoice	3–Apr 9, 2026	413	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 45	See the poll
Quantus Insights	13–Mar 14, 2026	784	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 44	See the poll
Onmessage Inc. Insurance Watchdog Coalition	3–Mar 8, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 45	See the poll
Emc Research Ohio Environmental Council	10–Feb 22, 2026	1,343	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 47	See the poll
Emerson College	6–Dec 8, 2025	850	registered voters	Republican 49 Democrat 46	See the poll
Bowling Green State University Democracy And Public Policy Research Network/Yougov	2–Oct 14, 2025	800	registered voters	Democrat 49 Republican 48	See the poll
Emerson College	18–Aug 19, 2025	1,000	registered voters	Republican 50 Democrat 44	See the poll
Bowling Green State University Democracy And Public Policy Research Network/Yougov	18–Apr 24, 2025	800	registered voters	Republican 49 Democrat 46	See the poll
Bowling Green State University Democracy And Public Policy Research Network/Yougov	14–Feb 21, 2025	800	registered voters	Republican 47 Democrat 41	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Jon Husted · Republican

Primary results

Held May 5, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Sherrod Brown	Totals pending
Republican primary	Jon Husted	Totals pending

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Jon Husted
source
Democrat Challenger

Sherrod Brown
source
Other Challenger

Faris, Stephen I Mr

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Levy, Gregory Lee

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Redpath, William

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Republican, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026