Oregon
U.S. Senate · Oregon
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 60.7% | 35.5% | 3.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 47.3%+13.4 | 48.7%−13.2 | 4.0%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Jeff Merkley · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Jeff Merkley | 93.2% | 457,006 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | David Brock Smith | 29.5% | 107,953 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated