Oklahoma
U.S. Senate · Oklahoma
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | 57.8% | 34.2% | 8.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 48.7%+9.1 | 47.3%−13.1 | 4.0%+4.0 |
Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Mullin, Markwayne · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas | 59.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Kevin Hern | 69.8% | 267,222 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated