Louisiana
U.S. Senate · Louisiana
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 14%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana | 56.4% | 43.2% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 48.7%+7.7 | 47.3%−4.1 | 4.0%−3.6 |
Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
2 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Bill Cassidy · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Jamie Davis | 79.9% | 156,789 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Julia Letlow | 56.9% | 180,002 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated