Kentucky
U.S. Senate · Kentucky
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 15%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | 56.2% | 43.4% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 48.7%+7.5 | 47.3%−3.9 | 4.0%−3.6 |
Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
2 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Mcconnell, Mitch · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Charles Booker | 46.8% | 155,577 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Andy Barr | 60.5% | 283,833 votes |
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
Democrat 
Republican Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated