Illinois
U.S. Senate · Illinois
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 6%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 58.8% | 40.8% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 47.3%+11.5 | 48.7%−7.9 | 4.0%−3.6 |
Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Durbin, Richard J. · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Juliana Stratton | 40.4% | 507,689 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Don Tracy | 40.0% | 215,523 votes |
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
Democrat 
Republican Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated