U.S. House
Leading: Democratic, with 235 of 435 projected seats and a 96% chance of a majority.
Seat forecast
| Party | Projected seats | Range | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 235 | 224–265 | 96% |
| Republican | 200 | 170–211 | 4% |
218 seats for a majority, out of 435 · 670 polls, 50,000 simulations
Democrats · Polymarket : 91%
Median of the 50,000 simulations: Democratic 242 · Republican 193. The large figures count the seats where each party is favoured. The median also counts its chances where it is not; it is the figure most models show, including The Economist. When a wave is building, it runs higher than the first.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
Current House Composition
Seats — 435 total
- Republican 218
- Democratic 214
- Vacant 3
Projected vote share
| Party | Vote | 7-day change | Chance of finishing first |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 54.5% | +0.8 pts | 96% |
| Republican | 45.3% | +0.5 pts | 4% |
Prediction markets · Kalshi
What Kalshi traders are paying
Live prices from the Kalshi elections exchange, shown beside our projection. These prices do not enter our projection.
Congress balance of power
US$30M open interest- Democrats sweep61%
- D House, R Senate30%
- Republicans sweep10%
- R House, D Senate0.8%
House popular vote margin
US$2M open interest- Democrats, 8 to 10%26%
- Democrats, 6 to 8%22%
- Democrats, 10 to 12%19%
- Democrats, 4 to 6%11%
- Democrats, 12 to 14%8.9%
- Republicans win5.3%
- Democrats, 2 to 4%5.1%
- Democrats, 0 to 2%3.5%
- Democrats, 14 to 16%3.1%
- Democrats, 16% and above1.6%
Kalshi prices as of October 15, 2026 · Probability implied by the last traded price, or the midpoint between bid and ask when a contract has not traded.
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Across 50,000 simulations of the election.
District map
Colour shows the leading party; the shade, how settled the race is.
All districts
All 435 districts, sortable by leading party, margin and chance.
| District | State | Leading | Vote | Margin | Chance | vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-2 | AZ | Republican | 50.2% | 5.7 pts | 52% | Hold |
| KY-6 | KY | Republican | 49.9% | 5.8 pts | 53% | Hold |
| VA-1 | VA | Republican | 50.7% | 5.8 pts | 58% | Hold |
| WI-1 | WI | Republican | 50.2% | 5.8 pts | 52% | Hold |
| MI-4 | MI | Republican | 50.7% | 5.8 pts | 58% | Hold |
| IA-2 | IA | Democratic | 50.4% | 5.9 pts | 54% | Republican → Democratic |
| ME-2 | ME | Democratic | 50.3% | 5.9 pts | 55% | Hold |
| MO-2 | MO | Republican | 50.3% | 5.9 pts | 55% | Hold |
| NY-1 | NY | Democratic | 46.1% | 5.9 pts | 55% | Republican → Democratic |
| MT-1 | MT | Republican | 50.2% | 6.0 pts | 58% | Hold |
| PA-1 | PA | Republican | 51.4% | 6.2 pts | 66% | Hold |
| AZ-8 | AZ | Republican | 51.6% | 6.3 pts | 68% | Hold |
| CO-4 | CO | Republican | 49.6% | 6.3 pts | 67% | Hold |
| CO-3 | CO | Democratic | 51.2% | 6.3 pts | 67% | Republican → Democratic |
| MN-1 | MN | Republican | 51.9% | 6.5 pts | 70% | Hold |
| FL-9 | FL | Democratic | 50.2% | 6.5 pts | 52% | Republican → Democratic |
| TX-15 | TX | Democratic | 50.1% | 6.5 pts | 51% | Republican → Democratic |
| MI-7 | MI | Democratic | 51.6% | 6.6 pts | 71% | Republican → Democratic |
| MI-10 | MI | Democratic | 51.1% | 6.6 pts | 69% | Republican → Democratic |
| NC-11 | NC | Democratic | 50.3% | 6.6 pts | 53% | Republican → Democratic |
| FL-13 | FL | Republican | 50.3% | 6.6 pts | 56% | Hold |
| FL-22 | FL | Democratic | 50.1% | 6.6 pts | 51% | Republican → Democratic |
| CO-5 | CO | Republican | 51.0% | 6.6 pts | 70% | Hold |
| NY-17 | NY | Democratic | 49.7% | 6.6 pts | 71% | Republican → Democratic |
| VA-5 | VA | Republican | 51.7% | 6.6 pts | 72% | Hold |
| AL-2 | AL | Republican | 50.8% | 6.6 pts | 58% | Democratic → Republican |
| TX-35 | TX | Republican | 50.6% | 6.7 pts | 55% | Hold |
| FL-7 | FL | Republican | 50.8% | 6.7 pts | 58% | Hold |
| OH-15 | OH | Republican | 51.0% | 6.7 pts | 60% | Hold |
| VA-2 | VA | Democratic | 52.0% | 6.7 pts | 72% | Republican → Democratic |
| CA-40 | CA | Republican | 51.0% | 6.8 pts | 60% | Hold |
| NJ-7 | NJ | Democratic | 52.1% | 6.8 pts | 73% | Republican → Democratic |
| NY-2 | NY | Republican | 46.1% | 6.8 pts | 72% | Hold |
| SC-1 | SC | Republican | 52.2% | 6.9 pts | 74% | Hold |
| IA-3 | IA | Democratic | 52.4% | 6.9 pts | 76% | Republican → Democratic |
| AR-2 | AR | Republican | 52.4% | 7.0 pts | 76% | Hold |
| FL-16 | FL | Republican | 51.4% | 7.0 pts | 64% | Hold |
| WI-8 | WI | Republican | 52.5% | 7.0 pts | 76% | Hold |
| NV-2 | NV | Republican | 51.7% | 7.0 pts | 66% | Hold |
| TX-23 | TX | Republican | 51.5% | 7.1 pts | 64% | Hold |
| NC-1 | NC | Democratic | 51.6% | 7.1 pts | 66% | Hold |
| FL-25 | FL | Democratic | 51.6% | 7.1 pts | 66% | Hold |
| NC-3 | NC | Republican | 51.6% | 7.1 pts | 66% | Hold |
| GA-1 | GA | Republican | 52.6% | 7.2 pts | 77% | Hold |
| CO-8 | CO | Democratic | 52.5% | 7.3 pts | 78% | Republican → Democratic |
| WI-3 | WI | Democratic | 52.8% | 7.4 pts | 79% | Republican → Democratic |
| FL-11 | FL | Republican | 52.1% | 7.4 pts | 70% | Hold |
| FL-4 | FL | Republican | 52.4% | 7.6 pts | 73% | Hold |
| AZ-6 | AZ | Democratic | 52.9% | 7.6 pts | 80% | Republican → Democratic |
| NY-21 | NY | Republican | 49.6% | 7.6 pts | 79% | Hold |
Can either party build a durable House majority in a nationalized midterm?
The national mood sets the field, but control is won district by district: retirements, recruitment and a small set of suburban seats can outweigh a modest polling lead.
How we got here
For several elections, the House majority has come down to a handful of seats. Redistricting reduced the number of truly elastic districts, making candidate quality and local turnout unusually consequential.
The projection moves with every poll; the seat range says more than any national average.
What can still change the race
- Candidate fields and retirements in competitive districts.
- A sustained movement in the generic ballot rather than a one-day reaction.
- Turnout and persuasion gaps across suburban, Latino and working-class districts.