North Carolina’s 5th District

U.S. House · NC-5

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 87% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 26%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
NC-5	54.5%	45.5%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+10.2	54.5%−9.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	4.4% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Virginia Foxx · Republican

Held March 3, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Chuck Hubbard	56.7%	25,655 votes
Republican primary	Virginia Foxx	74.5%	53,627 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Virginia Foxx
source
Democrat Challenger

Chuck Hubbard
source
Other Challenger

Clayton, David

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

The Republicans won by 19.0 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.2 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.