North Carolina’s 9th District
U.S. House · NC-9
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 28%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| NC-9 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+10.0 | 54.5%−8.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 7.5% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Richard Hudson · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Richard N. Ojeda II | 41.8% | 18,469 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Richard Hudson | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 18.6 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 9.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated