North Carolina’s 2nd District

U.S. House · NC-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 45.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican
NC-2	72.7%	27.3%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+18.2	44.2%−17.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	7.2% (± 0.4)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Deborah Ross · Democrat

Held March 3, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Deborah Ross	0.0%
Republican primary	Gene Douglass	0.0%

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Deborah Ross
source
Other Challenger

Mcginnis, Brian

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Gene Douglass
source

The Democrats won by 34.4 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 45.4 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.