North Carolina’s 13th District

U.S. House · NC-13

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 81% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.8 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 33%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
NC-13	53.5%	46.5%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+9.2	54.5%−8.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	7.5% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Brad Knott · Republican

Held March 3, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Paul Barringer	59.1%	29,743 votes
Republican primary	Brad Knott	89.9%	44,038 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Brad Knott
source
Democrat Challenger

Paul Barringer
source
Other Challenger

Aguilar, Anthony Bailey Mr.

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

The Republicans won by 17.3 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 8.8 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.