North Carolina’s 12th District

U.S. House · NC-12

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 57.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican
NC-12	78.6%	21.4%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+24.1	44.2%−22.8

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	8.2% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Alma Shealey Adams · Democrat

Held March 3, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Alma Shealey Adams	78.9%	54,630 votes
Republican primary	Jack Codiga	67.4%	6,569 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Alma Shealey Adams
source
Other Challenger

Rabah, Ryan

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Jack Codiga
source

The Democrats won by 47.6 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 57.2 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.