North Carolina’s 10th District

U.S. House · NC-10

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 90% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 21%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 55.2%

Pat Harrigan, incumbent
Democrat 44.8%

Ashley Bell

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
NC-10	55.2%	44.8%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+11.0	54.5%−9.7

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll, 2 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 1	10–Mar 12, 2026	400	likely voters	Pat Harrigan (R) 52 Ashley Bell (D) 37	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 2	10–Mar 12, 2026	400	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 51 Generic Democrat (D) 38	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	6.1% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Pat Harrigan · Republican

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Ashley Bell	47.3%	19,472 votes
Republican primary	Pat Harrigan	87.7%	46,270 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Pat Harrigan
source
Democrat Challenger

Ashley Bell
source
Other Challenger

Feldman, Steven

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 19.3 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 11.4 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NC-6 Republican, competitive
NC-5 Republican, competitive
NC-12 Democrat, safe seat
NC-14 Republican, toss-up
NC-9 Republican, competitive
NC-8 Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026