Arkansas’s 2nd District
U.S. House · AR-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 76% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.0 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 43%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| AR-2 | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+8.2 | 54.5%−6.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
2 polls, 3 scenarios
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.4% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
French Hill · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Chris Jones | 92.6% | 47,512 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | French Hill | 76.8% | 49,079 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 17.9 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 7.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated