New Jersey’s 2nd District
U.S. House · NJ-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 84% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.4 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 34%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| NJ-2 | 53.6% | 46.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+9.3 | 54.5%−8.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 12.2% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Jeff Van Drew · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Zack Mullock | 39.8% | 17,698 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Jeff Van Drew | 100.0% | 35,602 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 16.9 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 8.4 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated