New Jersey’s 12th District

U.S. House · NJ-12

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NJ-12	66.9%	33.0%	0.1%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+12.4	44.2%−11.3	1.2%−1.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	14.7% (± 0.5)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Coleman, Bonnie Watson · Democrat

Held June 2, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Adam Hamawy	28.6%	22,265 votes
Republican primary	Gregg Mele	100.0%	13,298 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Adam Hamawy
source
Other Open seat

Jinete, Andres

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Gregg Mele
source

The Democrats won by 24.8 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 33.9 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.