New Jersey’s 4th District

U.S. House · NJ-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
NJ-4	62.7%	37.3%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+18.5	54.5%−17.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	8.0% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Christopher H. Smith · Republican

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Rachel Peace	72.8%	20,782 votes
Republican primary	Christopher H. Smith	100.0%	34,110 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 35.7 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 25.5 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.