Georgia’s 1st District

U.S. House · GA-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.2 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 41%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
GA-1	52.6%	47.4%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+8.3	54.5%−7.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	5.6% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Carter, Earl Leroy · Republican

Held June 16, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Amanda Hollowell	53.0%	12,618 votes
Republican primary	James "Jim" Kingston	52.4%	37,025 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 24.0 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 7.2 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.