Thursday, October 15, 2026
B.C. votes in 9 days

Georgia’s 3rd District

U.S. House · GA-3

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 58.8%

    Brian Jack, incumbent

  • Democrat 41.2%

    Maura Keller

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

Republican Democrat
GA-3 58.8%41.2%
National averageUnited States 44.2%+14.6 54.5%−13.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over4.4% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Brian Jack · Republican

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary Maura Keller 60.8% 33,964 votes
Republican primary Brian Jack 100.0% 87,643 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Brian Jack

    source
  • Democrat Challenger

    Maura Keller

    source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 32.6 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 17.7 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

  • GA-6 Democrat, safe seat
  • GA-5 Democrat, safe seat
  • GA-13 Democrat, safe seat
  • GA-4 Democrat, safe seat
  • GA-11 Republican, competitive
  • GA-10 Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

  1. AZ-2Republican52%5.7-point gap
  2. KY-6Republican53%5.8-point gap
  3. VA-1Republican58%5.8-point gap
Forecast updated