Georgia’s 10th District

U.S. House · GA-10

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 21%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
GA-10	55.0%	45.0%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+10.8	54.5%−9.5

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	5.1% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Collins, Michael A Jr · Republican

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Pamela "Pam" Delancy	54.4%	35,058 votes
Republican primary	Houston Gaines	66.9%	59,895 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 26.1 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.6 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.