Oklahoma’s 5th District
U.S. House · OK-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 21%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| OK-5 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+10.7 | 54.5%−9.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 6.6% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Stephanie Bice · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Jena Nelson | 56.7% | 26,886 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Stephanie Bice | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 21.4 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.6 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated