Oklahoma’s 3rd District
U.S. House · OK-3
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 43.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| OK-3 | 71.5% | 28.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+27.3 | 54.5%−26.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 12.5% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Frank Lucas · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Suzie Byrd | 67.4% | 16,504 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Frank Lucas | 70.8% | 55,631 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 100.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 43.1 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated