Oklahoma’s 4th District

U.S. House · OK-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat	Other
OK-4	61.5%	34.4%	4.1%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+17.3	54.5%−20.1	1.2%+2.8

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	7.8% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Tom Cole · Republican

Held June 16, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Mitchell Jacob	54.4%	18,243 votes
Republican primary	Tom Cole	71.1%	52,717 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 37.0 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 27.1 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.