Florida’s 4th District

U.S. House · FL-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 73% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.6 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 40%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
FL-4	52.4%	47.7%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+8.1	54.5%−6.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	7.8% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Aaron Bean · Republican

Held August 18, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	LaShonda "L.J." Holloway	57.3%	29,739 votes
Republican primary	Aaron Bean	0.0%

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Aaron Bean
source
Democrat Challenger

LaShonda "L.J." Holloway
source
Other Challenger

Sell, Mike

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Washington, Eugene Daffah Sir III

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

The Republicans won by 14.6 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 7.6 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.