Florida’s 6th District

U.S. House · FL-6

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
FL-6	59.6%	40.4%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+15.4	54.5%−14.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	9.9% (± 0.4)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Held August 18, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Eric Yonce	32.1%	13,461 votes
Republican primary	Randy Fine	57.6%	51,076 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Challenger

Eric Yonce
source
Other Challenger

Gist, Michael

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Randy Fine
source

The Republicans won by 33.0 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 19.3 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.