Florida’s 5th District

U.S. House · FL-5

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
FL-5	58.1%	41.9%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+13.9	54.5%−12.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	10.1% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

John H. Rutherford · Republican

Held August 18, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Rachel Grage	65.1%	27,400 votes
Republican primary	John H. Rutherford	67.7%	54,039 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 26.1 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 16.4 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.