Florida’s 7th District
U.S. House · FL-7
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 58% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.7 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 46%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-7 | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+6.5 | 54.5%−5.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 19.4% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Cory Lee Mills · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Bale Dalton | 45.5% | 21,740 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Ryan Elijah | 47.3% | 31,532 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 13.1 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated