Florida’s 8th District
U.S. House · FL-8
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 27%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-8 | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+10.1 | 54.5%−8.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Mike Haridopolos · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Jennifer Jenkins | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Mike Haridopolos | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 24.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.1 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 8 90%
- Former district 10 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated