Florida’s 22nd District

U.S. House · FL-22

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 51% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.6 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 47%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.1%

Pia Dandiya
Republican 49.9%

Casey Askar

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
FL-22	50.1%	49.9%
National averageUnited States	54.5%−4.4	44.2%+5.7

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls, 5 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Impact Research House Majority PAC Scenario 1	24–Aug 31, 2026	—	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 46 Generic Democrat (D) 46	See the poll
Impact Research House Majority PAC Scenario 2	24–Aug 31, 2026	—	likely voters	Pia Dandiya (D) 46 Casey Askar (R) 44	See the poll
Tavern Research	10–Aug 12, 2026	551	likely voters	Pia Dandiya (D) 50 Casey Askar (R) 50	See the poll
Gqr Scenario 1	18–Jun 25, 2026	400	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 45 Generic Democrat (D) 43	See the poll
Gqr Scenario 2	18–Jun 25, 2026	400	likely voters	Belinda Keiser (R) 46 Pia Dandiya (D) 45	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Primary results

Held August 18, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Pia Dandiya	68.6%	26,053 votes
Republican primary	Casey Askar	30.9%	14,770 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Challenger

Pia Dandiya
source
Other Challenger

Parnas, Lev

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Casey Askar
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 57.2 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 6.6 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 20 34%
Former district 26 33%
Former district 18 22%
Former district 19 6%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

FL-26 Republican, safe seat
FL-20 Democrat, safe seat
FL-25 Democrat, toss-up
FL-24 Democrat, safe seat
FL-23 Democrat, safe seat
FL-21 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026