Florida’s 20th District

U.S. House · FL-20

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 46.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Primary desk · updated July 22

The Democratic battle reshaping FL‑20

A resignation, a new map and Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s entry turned a safe seat into a national primary story — without making a thin set of sponsored polls predictive.

Closed primaryAugust 18, 2026

This is the regular nomination for the next Congress.

Special electionDate TBD

It will separately fill the vacant remainder of the current term.

Published general-election model100% Dem. win

73.2% Dem. vote · October 15, 2026

What changed

A vacancy and a new political geography

Sheila Cherfilus‑McCormick resigned on April 21. Her office remains open under the Clerk, but the district has no voting representation in the House. The Justice Department had charged her in a case alleging theft of FEMA funds tied to a COVID‑19 vaccination contract; the charges are allegations and she is presumed innocent.

The 2026 map enacted after the special session called by Ron DeSantis eliminated Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s former seat. Her decision to run in FL‑20, a historically Black district, prompted a debate over representation and local political power. Elijah Manley, Dale Holness and Luther Campbell are among her principal rivals.

Latest published full ballot

Wasserman Schultz leads a still-thinly-polled race

the political matrix/the listener group
2026-05-29–2026-06-01 · n=500 LV-D

Debbie Wasserman Schultz

39%

Elijah Manley

21%

Don't know

19%

Dale Holness

15%

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick

Luther Campbell

Maisha Williams

Vote‑Scope assessment: polling desk, not a primary forecast. One complete post-redistricting ballot and an EMC release commissioned by the Wasserman Schultz campaign (52%, other candidates’ detail unpublished) are not enough for a robust model.

Poll source

Sources and method

Data current through July 22, 2026. The eleven questions in the file include scenarios and head-to-head matchups, so they are not averaged as eleven independent polls.

Download JSON data

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 73.2%

Debbie Wasserman Schultz, incumbent
Republican 26.8%

Brent Andersen

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
FL-20	73.2%	26.8%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+18.7	44.2%−17.4

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Debbie Wasserman Schultz
source
Other Open seat

Maxime, Kedner

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Brent Andersen
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 63.6 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 46.4 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 20 62%
Former district 23 37%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

FL-25 Democrat, toss-up
FL-24 Democrat, safe seat
FL-23 Democrat, safe seat
FL-26 Republican, safe seat
FL-27 Republican, competitive
FL-22 Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026