Florida’s 25th District

U.S. House · FL-25

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 66% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.1 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 43%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 51.6%

Jared Moskowitz, incumbent
Republican 48.4%

Scott Singer

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
FL-25	51.6%	48.4%
National averageUnited States	54.5%−2.9	44.2%+4.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls, 5 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Middle Seat Scenario 1	5–May 6, 2026	576	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 51 Generic Republican (R) 39	See the poll
Middle Seat Scenario 2	5–May 6, 2026	576	likely voters	Oliver Larkin (D) 43 George Moraitis (R) 34	See the poll
Middle Seat Scenario 3	5–May 6, 2026	576	likely voters	Oliver Larkin (D) 45 Scott Singer (R) 33	See the poll
Beacon Insights Scenario 1	1–May 2, 2026	461	registered voters	Democrat 43 Republican 33	See the poll
Beacon Insights Scenario 2	1–May 2, 2026	461	registered voters	Democrat 40 Republican 39	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Jared Moskowitz · Democrat

Primary results

Held August 18, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Jared Moskowitz	63.5%	28,294 votes
Republican primary	Scott Singer	31.4%	11,882 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Jared Moskowitz
source
Other Challenger

Jassenoff, Peter

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Scott Singer
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 14.8 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 7.1 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 23 46%
Former district 24 28%
Former district 25 18%
Former district 22 8%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

FL-20 Democrat, safe seat
FL-24 Democrat, safe seat
FL-26 Republican, safe seat
FL-27 Republican, competitive
FL-23 Democrat, safe seat
FL-22 Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026