Florida’s 21st District

U.S. House · FL-21

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 14%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
FL-21	56.6%	43.4%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+12.4	54.5%−11.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	14.0% (± 0.4)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Brian Mast · Republican

Held August 18, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	James T. Martin	50.4%	24,045 votes
Republican primary	Brian Mast	0.0%

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Brian Mast
source
Democrat Challenger

James T. Martin
source
Other Challenger

Cooke, Alexander R

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

The Republicans won by 24.3 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 13.7 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.