Texas’s 2nd District
U.S. House · TX-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 91% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 19%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-2 | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+11.3 | 54.5%−10.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Dan Crenshaw · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Shaun Finnie | 100.0% | 48,700 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Steve Toth | 55.8% | 36,830 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 31.5 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 12.0 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 2 88%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated