Texas’s 9th District
U.S. House · TX-9
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 87% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 26%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-9 | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+10.3 | 54.5%−9.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
2 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Leticia Gutierrez | 53.6% | 18,703 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Alex Mealer | 68.3% | 15,625 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 37.7 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.4 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 36 85%
- Former district 2 9%
- Former district 29 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated