Texas’s 8th District
U.S. House · TX-8
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-8 | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+13.9 | 54.5%−12.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Luttrell, Morgan Joe · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Laura Jones | 65.7% | 27,865 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Jessica Hart Steinmann | 68.0% | 42,636 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 33.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 16.6 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 8 62%
- Former district 10 31%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated