Texas’s 10th District
U.S. House · TX-10
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 25%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-10 | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+10.5 | 54.5%−9.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Mccaul, Michael · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Caitlin Rourk | 60.8% | 32,716 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Chris Gober | 51.2% | 38,541 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 32.4 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.6 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 17 39%
- Former district 10 38%
- Former district 8 21%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated