Tennessee’s 7th District

U.S. House · TN-7

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 90% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 22%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
TN-7	55.2%	44.8%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+11.0	54.5%−9.7

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Matt Van Epps · Republican

Held August 6, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Darden Copeland	39.8%	16,646 votes
Republican primary	Matt Van Epps	100.0%	60,043 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Matt Van Epps
source
Democrat Challenger

Darden Copeland
source
Other Open seat

Koontz, Andrew

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

The Republicans won by 26.1 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 11.3 points.

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.