Tennessee’s 5th District
U.S. House · TN-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 24%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TN-5 | 54.8% | 45.1% | 0.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+10.5 | 54.5%−9.4 | 1.2%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
3 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Andy Ogles · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Chaz Molder | 40.5% | 17,730 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Charlie Hatcher | 53.2% | 36,546 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 33.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.8 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 8 44%
- Former district 7 38%
- Former district 5 11%
- Former district 9 7%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated