Arizona’s 2nd District
U.S. House · AZ-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.7 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 53%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| AZ-2 | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+5.9 | 54.5%−4.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
2 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 14.2% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Eli Crane · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Jonathan Nez | 100.0% | 65,118 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Eli Crane | 100.0% | 89,205 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 9.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 5.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated