Arizona’s 4th District

U.S. House · AZ-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
AZ-4	59.4%	40.6%	0.0%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+4.9	44.2%−3.7	1.2%−1.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	20.7% (± 0.5)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Greg Stanton · Democrat

Held July 21, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Greg Stanton	62.3%	35,551 votes
Republican primary	Zuhdi Jasser	100.0%	39,431 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 7.3 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 18.9 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.