Arizona’s 7th District

U.S. House · AZ-7

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican
AZ-7	68.6%	31.4%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+14.1	44.2%−12.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	51.7% (± 0.7)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Adelita Grijalva · Democrat

Held July 21, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Adelita Grijalva	100.0%	59,304 votes
Republican primary	Daniel Butierez	100.0%	21,934 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 26.9 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 37.3 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.