Arizona’s 5th District

U.S. House · AZ-5

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 90% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 24%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
AZ-5	54.7%	45.3%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+10.4	54.5%−9.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	15.3% (± 0.5)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Biggs, Andy · Republican

Held July 21, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Elizabeth Lee	66.0%	30,857 votes
Republican primary	Mark Lamb	58.7%	52,352 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 20.8 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.1 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.