Maine’s 2nd District

U.S. House · ME-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 55% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.9 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 51%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.3%

Matthew Dunlap
Republican 49.4%

Paul LePage

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
ME-2	50.3%	49.4%	0.3%
National averageUnited States	54.5%−4.2	44.2%+5.2	1.2%−1.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

14 polls, 19 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Tulchin Research	27–Sep 30, 2026	500	likely voters	Matt Dunlap (D) 50 Paul LePage (R) 48	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	622	likely voters	Matt Dunlap (D) 51 Paul LePage (R) 45	See the poll
Impact Research House Majority PAC Scenario 1	8–Sep 12, 2026	500	likely voters	Paul LePage (R) 49 Matt Dunlap (D) 49	See the poll
Impact Research House Majority PAC Scenario 2	8–Sep 12, 2026	500	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 49 Generic Democrat (D) 45	See the poll
Dccc Targeting Team	11–Aug 13, 2026	621	likely voters	Paul LePage (R) 49 Matt Dunlap (D) 48	See the poll
Tulchin Research	11–Jul 16, 2026	600	likely voters	Matt Dunlap (D) 49 Paul LePage (R) 48	See the poll
Pan Atlantic Sms Group	8–May 18, 2026	418	likely voters	Joe Baldacci (D) 49 Paul LePage (R) 41	See the poll
Co/Efficient NRCC Scenario 1	26–Apr 28, 2026	918	likely voters	Paul LePage (R) 50 Joe Baldacci (D) 40	See the poll
Co/Efficient NRCC Scenario 2	26–Apr 28, 2026	918	likely voters	Paul LePage (R) 50 Matt Dunlap (D) 40	See the poll
Co/Efficient NRCC Scenario 3	26–Apr 28, 2026	918	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 48 Generic Democrat (D) 41	See the poll
Upswing Research	24–Feb 27, 2026	403	likely voters	Paul LePage (R) 52 Jordan Wood (D) 45	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire Scenario 1	12–Feb 16, 2026	520	likely voters	Paul LePage (R) 48 Jordan Wood (D) 44	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire Scenario 2	12–Feb 16, 2026	520	likely voters	Paul LePage (R) 47 Matt Dunlap (D) 46	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire Scenario 3	12–Feb 16, 2026	520	likely voters	Paul LePage (R) 48 Joe Baldacci (D) 47	See the poll
Pan Atlantic Sms Group	Nov 29, 2025 – Dec 7, 2025	387	likely voters	Paul LePage (R) 44 Joe Baldacci (D) 43	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	16–Oct 21, 2025	521	likely voters	Paul LePage (R) 49 Jared Golden (D) 44	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	19–Jun 23, 2025	394	adults	Paul LePage (R) 50 Jared Golden (D) 47	See the poll
Mellman Group	4–Jun 10, 2025	400	likely voters	Jared Golden (D) 44 Paul LePage (R) 43	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Congressional Leadership Fund	13–Apr 15, 2025	400	likely voters	Paul LePage (R) 48 Jared Golden (D) 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	1.5%

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Golden, Jared · Democrat

Primary results

Held June 9, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Matthew Dunlap	0.0%
Republican primary	Paul LePage	100.0%	69,233 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Matthew Dunlap
source
Republican Open seat

Paul LePage
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 0.7 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 5.9 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

ME-1 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026