Maine’s 1st District
U.S. House · ME-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 30.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ME-1 | 63.3% | 32.7% | 4.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+8.7 | 44.2%−11.6 | 1.2%+2.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 1.8% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Chellie Pingree · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Chellie Pingree | 100.0% | 128,257 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Ronald Russell | 53.5% | 27,059 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 21.6 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 30.6 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated