Florida’s 16th District
U.S. House · FL-16
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 64% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.0 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 44%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-16 | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+7.1 | 54.5%−5.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
2 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Buchanan, Vernon · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Kelly Kirschner | 43.0% | 23,473 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Sydney Gruters | 63.5% | 48,531 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 24.9 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 7.0 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 18 50%
- Former district 16 32%
- Former district 17 10%
- Former district 13 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated